By Flint Wheeler
I don’t believe Manziel is worth a Top 10 pick, and I think he’s a gamble as a first-round quarterback in general. But that doesn’t mean I don’t think he’s a future NFL starter. It pains me to write this, however, in today’s ‘new’ NFL, quarterbacks mean almost everything. Seattle proved that D and a solid run game can still win the big one. But let’s be honest, the season’s 16 weeks long and the team that scores the most points usually wins. Like death and taxes, the long ball and offense in the NFL sells. Look no further than this year’s NFL season-long playoff race contenders. Colts; Luck, Patriots; Brady, 9ers; Kapernick, Denver; Manning, Saints; Brees… See a trend here? As much as we’d like to believe the other 10 positions on the offensive side of the ball matter, they only matter when the quarterback is skilled enough to deliver them the football (see Chiefs and Bengals). With the Bengals and Chiefs you can have a pro-bowl filled roster BUT with a C+, B- quarterback, you’re watching the playoffs from the sidelines.
For a team in today’s NFL, a first-round pick is much more than a developmental quarterback — he immediately becomes the face of the franchise. Expectations soar, pressure mounts and from the moment the player is selected, the clock starts ticking. How long until he starts? When will he join the league’s elite?
Manziel isn’t ready to be an NFL starter — at least not one that can last. His game is predicated on elusiveness in the pocket, creativity as a runner and the ability to force defenses to hold their coverage longer than the average three-to-four seconds. The professional level is simply too fast, too big and too quick to adjust schematically for those attributes to remain Johnny Football’s calling card.
The best two Manziel comparisons are Cowboys QB Tony Romo and Eagles QB Michael Vick. That being said, Manziel doesn’t have the bulk or pocket-passing experience that Romo possesses and doesn’t have the arm strength to make high-velocity throws like Vick has.
Combine those two concerning comparisons with the plight of Redskins QB Robert Griffin III, and it’s hard not to be concerned about how quickly an injury can change and stunt a running-based quarterback’s growth.
Now, that’s not to say Manziel can’t adapt. Improvement to his footwork and increased velocity as a thrower (possible thanks to his consistently tight spiral and large hands) could make a world of difference for the dynamic passer.
The Texans won’t make Manziel the No. 1 overall pick. The Jaguars and Raiders likely won’t, either. He doesn’t fit what the Buccaneers or Cardinals are looking for at the position. The Vikings have the personnel to maximize his playmaking ability, but Manziel doesn’t quite fit new offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s preferred quarterback skill set. The Browns are the rumored destination, but they may be pushing the media to inflate his perceived value.
Manziel may sell tickets tomorrow, but if he can’t win in the NFL today and be set up for success in the future, he’s not worth a top selection. Ideally, Manziel falls to the second round, is shoved into a low-pressure situation and gets the chance to realize his potential.
It only takes one team to feel it’s the right fit for Manziel, and that it can capture the excitement he brought to college football.
Johnny Football should prepare himself for a harsh reality, because when it comes to decision time, drafting Manziel will be much easier said than done.
Flint Wheeler
Financial Services Professional
Visit www.FlintWheeler.Com
