By Flint Wheeler
Remember when Alabama’s rematch against LSU in 2011 contributed to the death of the Bowl Championship Series and the formation of the College Football Playoff? And then Alabama’s 2012 loss to Texas A&M meant the Tide were totally out of the BCS race, except they were back to No. 2 just 14 days later? And how it took the most amazing moment in college football history to put away Bama last year?
Yep, it’s the same “Non-Profit” public education football program led by the $7 Million a year coach Nick Saban. Boring, yes, but count on the Crimson Tide to be in the mix once again.
Alabama’s loss to Ole Miss a few weeks ago is now nothing more than a thing to argue about. The Tide ranked No. 4 in the AP entering Saturday, behind those Rebels, and then those Rebels lost at LSU. Bama now ranks well ahead of Ole Miss in the Coaches, and we’ve yet to have evidence the committee will think much differently.
While we can disagree about which of them should rank higher, the fact remains that it’s hard for a team to have more control over its destiny than Bama has now. That’s based off an SEC West schedule, a quality out-of-conference win against potential Big 12 champion West Virginia, a quality loss in Oxford, and the Alabama brand name.
My Present College Football Playoff Roster
Rose Bowl- No. 2 Alabama & No. 3 Michigan State. 1/1/2015 Pasadena, CA
Sugar Bowl- No. 1 Florida State & No. 4 Oregon. 1/1/2015 New Orleans, LA
Blessings once again on FSU for making the top spot simple. The rest of the troublesome Seminoles’ schedule continues to look tougher than expected, which could be fortunate if an upset strikes, but at the moment, I still have FSU reaching 13-0.
The SEC’s champion will rank No. 2 at worst. Whether that team’s Alabama, a Mississippi school, Georgia, or someone else, that’s just the way the SEC rolls, always near the top.
No. 3 and No. 4 hold steady. Michigan State finally played a complete game and now gets a week off before its most crucial test, a home game against Ohio State. The Ducks’ defense remains a major concern, but they’ll likely only play one good offense from here on out, in the Pac-12 title game.
Next week, we’ll be able to adjust based on any surprises in the committee’s first set of rankings. But I still expect conference champions to be heavy favorites for all four spots, at least in the Playoff’s first year. The committee wants to show it’s not the 2011 BCS all over again.
Cinderellas to ponder;
Two changes this week: Ole Miss and Alabama trade spots, and Colorado State’s in for East Carolina University after a nine-week Pirates run. E.C.U. is looking shakier and shakier and has multiple potential losses in the weeks ahead.
While Marshall just won the only game I had it penciled in as losing, a 12-1 Colorado State University team would be more impressive than a 13-0 Marshall would, especially if the Rams’ win over a surprisingly good Boston College turns out to be over a power-conference bowl team. This requires that Boise State drop another game, as B.S. University holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over C.S.U., and only conference champions are eligible for the designated mid-major spot. Boise State could just take that spot for itself. Making the obvious argument that the 5th team left out of this year’s playoff picture will look and sound a lot like the 3rd team left out in prior years with the BCS system. Good thing the playoff system, ummm, fixed this “Great team left out” problem we all whined about with the BCS system. Oh well, in a couple years we can increase the playoff roster to the top 8 teams. That’ll fix it.
Founder of Silex Strategies L.L.C. providing sales and consulting in Insurance, Retirement, Real Estate and Taxes through A.I.G./Valic. PGA Class A Member and T.P.I. Certified Golf Trainer. Host of “The Tilted Sports Radio Show” on Fox Sports 1270 from 3-7pm on Thursdays, Live from The Kilt. Contact at 760-409-4612 www.flintwheeler.com
