By Julie Buehler
Did you know: The Super Bowl ended with a run. It did, try to keep up…
Oh I know, you know EVERYTHING about football and the only reason you’re not an NFL coach is because you chose to pursue that engineering degree or that marketing career. But you KNOW football.
And you KNOW, without a shadow of a doubt, that if Marshawn Lynch would have gotten the carry on 2nd and goal in Super Bowl 49 that the Seahawks would be hoisting their trophy and the Patriots would be wondering “What if?”
You KNOW it was the dumbest, worst, most ill advised and stupidest play in NFL history.
That’s not opinion, that’s fact.
And you KNOW it.
ANYONE who knows football knows that.
Then again, maybe you know nothing about football and you were just watching the Super Bowl cuz that’s what every warm-blooded body does in ‘Merica on that particular Sunday. And maybe you’d had too much to drink and were a little swollen from too much guacamole and nachos, but even through your bleery-eyed assessment, you thought, “Wait, did my football-virgin eyes deceive me? Did the Seahawks really pass the ball on 2nd and goal rather than dump it to their bulldozer of a back?”
The mistake was easy to spot. Not because of the mistake, but because of the outcome. But don’t confuse the worst possible outcome with the worst possible decision.
I said it on game day, wrote about it in this space after the Super Bowl and have to reiterate once again due to deranged and highly delusional football fans : the call to pass on 2nd and goal with :26 left in the game was NOT the worst call in NFL history and NOT the reason the Seahawks lost the game.
In fact, it wasn’t even close, the game did end with a run.
First, I would argue, on just causal reasoning, that decisions made through the 43-8 annihilation of the Denver Broncos the year before were likely worse than those made that resulted in a 28-24 final.
That’s pretty easy to wrap your brain around.
Second, when understood in a risk-reward proposition, the stats support the Seahawks decision. A) Marshawn Lynch carried the ball 5 times within the 1-yard line, i.e. against stiff goal-line defenses, and scored only once all year. He lost yards twice. So there were double the odds he’d lose yardage than score, according to the regular season sample size. B) Russell Wilson had not thrown a single interception on any pass thrown on any down when the team needed 1-2 yards to convert and he threw only 1 interception all year within the opposition’s 10-yard line, but threw 7 touchdowns. So there were 7-to-1 odds Wilson would score. C) The Patriot’s run defense is really good. In fact, only 1 team in the NFL allowed fewer rushing touchdowns.
So, when examining the risk of Lynch losing yards against one of the top run defenses in the NFL and the likelihood of Wilson uncharacteristically throwing an interception, you can understand why the coaching staff would to attempt to catch the Patriots goal-line run defense off-guard and score through the air.
Third: Don’t diminish the Patriots’ defense. It was really good. Really underrated and Malcolm Butler made a PERFECT play. The jump he got on the ball, his ability to read that play, his angle of pursuit and the fact he actually caught the ball rather than just knocking it down made all the difference.
Lastly, and most importantly, there is a fundamental key to winning big and it doesn’t matter if we’re speaking of team sports or individual competition, or even office games and politicking.
The single most important thing to understand in competition is how to divert your opposition from playing to their strengths and forcing them to play to their weaknesses.
You want to win championships? Convince your opponent their best isn’t good enough. Convince them to scrap their plan and start guessing.
What’s shocking isn’t the play call itself; it’s the fact the Patriots were able to convince the Seahawks their tried-and-true running game wasn’t good enough. It was the fact the Patriots convinced the Seahawks to outsmart themselves. It was the fact the Patriots bullied the team that had been the NFL bully for the better part of 2 seasons into relying on stats and new-age intel and subterfuge to decide what to do on the game’s final drive.
THAT’S good football.
And THAT’S how to win championships.
The play call wasn’t the best and it’s not what most on-lookers would have decided to do. But on-lookers hadn’t been in the trenches for 59-plus minutes, getting their faces caved in by a ferocious defense they hadn’t anticipated.
Most on-lookers didn’t get spun around in circles as their defense wasn’t getting stops and their offense was abiding by a hope and a prayer that a big play would save the day.
Most on-lookers haven’t played chess against the likes of Bill BeliCheck-Mate.
And the interception, that’s not what lost the game for the Seahawks.
The encroachment penalty by Michael Bennett on the next play, though?
THAT was the final dagger.
Had he not handed the Patriots 5 yards by jumping the snap, they would have had to run a play to get off the 0-yard line or give up a safety and a whole cascade of possibilities come into play.
But Bennett jumped, and the most penalized team in the NFL incurred another penalty. The Patriots then had room to take a knee and run out the clock.
See, at the end of the day, the game did end on a run.
So settle down Seahawks fans, your team got beat over 60 minutes of great football, not on a single play of stupidity.
Now turn your attention to your Mariners, coffee, pasty complexion, and flannel pjs, I’ve got Kings hockey, 80-degree temps and a tan to enjoy.
Julie Buehler hosts the Coachella Valley’s most popular sports talk radio show, “Buehler’s Day Off” every day from 1-4 on 1010 KXPS, the valley’s all sports station. She can also be seen every morning between 6-7am on KMIR sharing the coolest stories in sports. She’s an avid gym rat, slightly sarcastic and more likely to recite Steve Young’s career passing stats than American Idol winners. Tune in M-F 3-6 pst at www.team1010.com or watch “Buehler’s Day Off” on Ustream and KMIR.com for her sports reports.
