By Flint Wheeler
If for no other reason than the unpredictability of injuries, the NFL win total over/under props traditionally include a few misfires. Last year, for example, the Cowboys’ number was initially set by the Bovada sportsbook at 9.5 (they won four) and the Ravens at 9 (they won 5). It works the other way, too, when the league’s upstarts outperform expectations. In 2015 Washington was predicted to win 6, covered easy at 9 and Cincinnati thought to win 9 crushed it with 12 wins.
So, which teams’ early projections seem a little too high or too low? Here is the full list of win totals, as of June 27, 2016:
Like Money? Who Doesn’t, right? Here are some suggestions:
Bears over 7.5 wins. The Bears’ offense will have to find its footing again without former offensive coordinator Adam Gase and longtime star running back Matt Forte—no easy task in either case. The real reason to believe Chicago can be .500 or better, though, lies on defense.
GM Ryan Pace and coordinator Vic Fangio combined to bring that unit back to respectability in 2015, and there are ample reasons to believe it can be above average this fall. The additions of Danny Trevathan and rookie Leonard Floyd completely rebuilt the linebacking corps around incumbent Pernell McPhee. Even if Floyd struggles through the expected growing pains, that’s a potentially dynamic group behind a line that will be anchored by rising star Eddie Goldman.
The schedule sets up well, too: Chicago plays back-to-back road games just once (Weeks 10 and 11), and those are winnable trips to the Buccaneers and Giants off a bye, followed by a home stretch featuring four of the final six games at Soldier Field.
49ers under 5.5 wins. Chip Kelly’s Eagles won just six games in 2015. This season the 49ers will win fewer. Who knows the impact Kelly will have, and how players will respond to his methods? But even if Kelly hits his ceiling this season, I don’t think the result will be a lot of wins. This simply boils down to a 49ers roster that is significantly weaker top to bottom than almost every one of its opponents.
Versatile defensive lineman DeForest Buckner was a smart use of the No. 7 pick and should help that depleted unit. The offense line will get a boost from rookie guard Joshua Garnett. Overall, though, this roster lacks the type of firepower, particularly in key spots (Blaine Gabbert, anyone?) to do much.
A glance at the schedule and it’s hard to see how San Francisco gets to six wins. Even if they beat the Rams twice and go 1–3 against the Cardinals and Seahawks, which I doubt, there are a multitude of treacherous remaining opponents (the Panthers, post-Brady suspension Patriots, Cowboys and Jets) And unless the trajectory is drastically altered, the 49ers will be ‘dogs to everyone else as well.
Jaguars over 7.5 wins. Yes, folks—after all these years of rebuilding, it’s time to take the Jaguars seriously. Maybe not as a division winner or deep playoff contender, but as a team that is putting all the pieces in place over time. Blake Bortles has developed into one of the NFL’s better deep passers, Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson make for a formidable receiver tandem, and the combination of T.J. Yeldon and free-agent acquisition Chris Ivory puts power in the backfield. The offensive line still needs help, but the defense needed more, and the Jags responded with the signings of Malik Jackson, Prince Amukamara and Tashaun Gipson.
What doesn’t look quite as good is the schedule: Jacksonville has to tussle with the AFC West, the NFC North and an improved AFC South. But this is a franchise that has been building slowly and doing things the right way, and 2016 could be the year it really starts to pay off. Think of the Raiders in 2015, and this could be a similar track. The Jags may not win 10–12 games just yet, but take the over on 7.5.
Good Luck!
