By Flint Wheeler
The Cincinnati Bengals are still undefeated. So are the Carolina Panthers.
Peyton Manning is trying his best to get the Denver Broncos to lose, but thanks to their defense they, too, are without a loss.
Aaron Rodgers and Eddie Lacy haven’t been at their best, and although the Green Bay Packers’ defense allowed 503 yards passing to Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers, the Packers managed to avoid defeat.
But the New England Patriots beat the Indianapolis Colts, keeping the honor of the league’s best unbeaten team.
The Patriots were the most efficient team in the league over the first five weeks, per Football Outsiders’ Defense-adjusted Value Over Average metric, which measures a team’s efficiency by comparing success on every single play to a league average based on situation and opponent.
Bill Belichik’s offensive unit sees 81.2 percent of down series result in a first down or touchdown, the highest success rate in the NFL. The Patriots’ defense have allowed a 69.3 percent success rate to opponents (12th best among defensive units) and their defensive front seven rank fourth in adjusted sack rate (9.6 percent), which gives sacks (plus intentional grounding penalties) per pass attempt adjusted for down, distance and opponent.
However, not only are the Patriots the league’s best undefeated team, they are dominating the league in a similar fashion to their 2007 season, when they went 16-0 during the regular season.
In 2007, the Patriots had an adjusted margin of victory of 20.1 points per game. This season, before the Week 6 matchup with the Colts, they have an adjusted margin of victory of 18.5 points per game. So it’s no wonder they are the Super Bowl favorite.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Patriots have a 96 percent chance to make the playoffs and an NFL-best 22 percent chance to win the Super Bowl heading into Week 6. That’s in line with PredictWise, which compiles odds from Betfair and removes the cut the house gets. They give the Patriots a 23 percent chance to win Super Bowl 50, with the Packers close behind at 22 percent. No other team is in double digits.
Another undefeated season seems unlikely, but it’s hard to look at this Patriots team and not see the best the NFL has to offer.
With this knowledge, Las Vegas adjusted the Super Bowl Futures lines as follows; Green Bay Packers +300 (30-1), Patriots +330 (33-1), Bengels +1000 (100-1), Broncos +1350 (135-1) , Cardinals +1500 (150-1), and (gulp) the Panthers at +1800. The Chargers are, well, where you’d expect the Chargers to be at +7000 (700-1). Maybe next year.
