By Julie Buehler
Strap on your knee brace and grab your playbook, it’s time to break down the latest in the NFL.
(cue bad British accent) Welcome to this edition of… Jules From The Gridiron… (cue dramatic music)
A few months ago, around the time the NFL season concluded and teams were “mutually parting ways” with their head coaches, I wrote a column in this space outlining “How To Ruin A Franchise In 5 Easy Steps”. I was pointing to John Elway and the Denver Broncos and their short-term perspective creating unnecessary tumult and change.
And I should have included a few other owners and GMs in that same column who have surpassed Elway and the Bronco’s irrational quest for a “SUPER BOWL OR BUST” mentality and ruined their franchises.
I thought Jed York was a runaway favorite for “Worst Owner Of The Off Season.” First he fired- sorry, “mutually parted ways” with Jim Harbaugh. Then he offered a rambling press conference that offered no sense or logic. Then we watched in bewilderment as heart-beat guys like Patrick Willis and Chris Borland and Justin Smith and Anthony Davis retired. Then we watched in disgust as player after player landed in trouble with the law. That’s not enough. We then got to see his problem solving ability, or lackthereof, when his new fancy billion-dollar stadium, the one set to house Super Bowl 50, can’t get it’s grass in gear. Probably doesn’t know his grass from a hole in the wall. Anyway, I thought, Yorky had that “Worst Owner” thing handled.
But then Dan Snyder stepped in and pushed his franchise straight off a cliff.
You have to hand it to him, if ANYONE can out-grasshole York, it’s Snyder.
Snyder always clung, irrationally tight, to the idea that RG3 is his franchise quarterback. They paid him like it, they brought in talent to support him, they treated him like he was the only player on the team that mattered.
That’s a problem.
And that left the head coach, both Mike Shanahan and Jay Gruden, the guy actually in charge of making the franchise run, left him out of the loop.
It’s not so different than the situation in San Fran with York and Harbaugh: lack of communication, lack of similar expectations, disjointed paths to accomplish the same goal.
Thing is, ultimately, the owner always wins. Even if the team keeps losing.
So RG3 is benched for Kirk Cousins. And the Redskins ownership demonstrates how to mishandle a situation and offer your head coach only as much authority as he needs to fail, but not enough to see if he’ll succeed.
I could dive into the Tom Brady settlement offer, or lack thereof, but it’s so trivial now, I’m just going to move on.
If the NFL’s suspension remains, great. If not, the Patriots aren’t the same team they were last year, this isn’t a Super Bowl team, so Brady playing or missing in those 4 games won’t impact their long-term results.
What will impact long-term results is who the head coach is: And 7 new teams anointed a new head coach over the off season. And of the 7 offseason coaching changes, Atlanta, Denver, San Francisco, New York, Buffalo, Oakland and Chicago, only 1 of those teams, Denver, chose a head coach from the offensive side of the ball. The other 6? All went with headmen who were known for their defensive prowess, moxy and/or experience.
And that got me thinking (and researching late into the night): Do defensive minds as head coaches fair better than offensive minds?
Of course we could look through the annals of NFL history as a resource, but the game has shifted so radically through the decades, looking at the current climate will be sufficient.
Here’s how it breaks down:
Defensive Mind: Bill Belichick (NE), Todd Bowles (NYJ), Gus Bradley (Jax), Pete Carroll (Sea), Tom Coughlin (NYG), Jack Del Rio (Oak), Jeff Fisher (StL), John Fox (Chi), Marvin Lewis (Cin), Chuck Pagano (Ind), Mike Pettine (Cle), Dan Quinn (Atl), Ron Rivera (Car), Rex Ryan (Buf), Lovie Smith (TB), Mike Tomlin (Pit), Jim Tomsula (SF), Mike Zimmer (Min).
Offensive Mind: Bruce Arians (Az), Jim Caldwell (Det), Jason Garrett (Dal), Jay Gruden (Wa), Chip Kelly (Phi), Gary Kubiak (Den), Mike McCarthy(GB), Mike McCoy (SD), Bill O’Brien (Hou), Sean Peyton (NO), Joe Philbin (Mia), Andy Reid (KC), Ken Wisenhunt (Ten)
And then there’s John Harbaugh. Baltimore’s Super Bowl winning head coach. He spent nearly 2 decades as a college and NFL special teams coordinator with a dash of secondary coaching before getting the nod as the Ravens’ main man. I’m excluding his numbers from either side, although one could argue he’s more of a defensive minded coach, it would only further underscore the findings, so his inclusion isn’t necessary.
The Findings: Of the 31 coaches in this evaluation, 18 (58%) are defensively minded to 13 (42%) who come from an offensive perspective.
The winning percentages are nearly the same, .554 for the defensive coaches and .562 for the offensive coaches. BUT the biggest distinction in the win-loss columns is the sheer number of victories by defensive minded coaches. They have, between the 18, 1,208 wins while the 13 offensive-minded coaches have nearly half, 605.
The defensive coaches have 5 members with 100+ career win and 9 guys with 50+ career wins. The offensive coaches? Only 1 has reached the century mark, Andy Reid and only 4 have more than 50 wins.
That means most of the longest tenured coaches in the NFL are defensive-minded. Why might that be? Perhaps because ownership doesn’t blame lack of a competent quarterback on a coach who spends more time building a line set to stalk signal callers. And because it’s so difficult to find a competent QB, ownership is more patient with defensive coaches.
The trend shows up in championships as well.
The defensive coaches have 8 Super Bowl wins in 16 tries while the offensive coaches have 2 wins in 5 trips. Only Sean Payton and Mike McCarthy (who had ball hawking defenses the years they won) are current offensive coaches with Super Bowl rings as an HC.
Now, half of those rings by defensive coaches were won by Bill Belichick, but 3 other guys, Carroll, Coughlin and Tomlin all won rings with punishing defenses. Still more than all the active offensive coaches have won.
So it seems the defensive-minded coaches have the advantage, both in experience, longevity and wins. And as the rule changes continue to favor offense, sharp defensive minds are going to be more valuable than ever.
So there you go, a little tune up before we head into the regular season.
Enjoy college football kicking off and next week, we’ll discuss the impact Will Smith’s new movie “Concussion” will have on the sport in general and the NFL specifically.
Til then, draft well in your fantasy leagues, my friends.
Julie Buehler hosted the Coachella Valley’s most popular sports talk radio show, “Buehler’s Day Off” every day for 3 years, but now she can be exclusively seen on KMIR sharing the coolest stories in sports. She’s an avid gym rat, slightly sarcastic and more likely to recite Steve Young’s career passing stats than American Idol winners. Tune in to KMIR’s nightly news or KMIR.com for her sports reports.
