By Flint Wheeler
It took only five years, but Floyd “Money” Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao have finally agreed to a fight (now that they’re past their primes).
Should be great, right? Today’s two most pre-eminent brawlers putting their legacies on the line in a single fight.
Most of the world seems to think so. As soon as Mayweather announced the agreement Friday, there were multiple reports that the MGM Grand in Las Vegas sold out for May 2 in mere minutes.
Not quite.
But this fight is sure to shatter records in money and ratings — and, of course, make the world’s richest athlete (Mayweather) a heck of a lot richer.
A breakdown of the expected numbers:
• Current records: Mayweather’s 2007 championship fight against Oscar De La Hoya still holds the record for pay-per-view buys, at 2.4 million. Mayweather’s 2013 title bout with Canelo Alvarez holds the all-time PPV revenue record, at $150 million. That fight, called “The One,” also holds the all-time gate record of a little more than $20 million, according to ESPN.com.
• Fighter earnings: With a 60-40 split in Mayweather’s favor, “Money” is likely to pull in $120 million with this fight, leaving Pacquiao with $80 million, according to Forbes.
• Pay-per-views: The HD version of Mayweather vs. Pacquiao will cost around $100. (ESPN.com reported the standard version is expected to cost a record $89.95.) So 4 million buys of the HD version will generate $200 million for the fighters after cable operators and HBO and Showtime get their cuts. Three million buys will get them $150 million, per Forbes.
• Gate: MGM is looking at more than $40 million in ticket sales, which will cost from $1,000 to $4,000 apiece.
• Betting: Sunday morning, Sportsbook had Mayweather as the favorite at minus-275, while Pacquiao was plus-215. Bovada had Mayweather as the minus-260 favorite, with Pacquiao at plus-200.
The full slate of odds as of Friday:
The handle in Vegas is estimated to be at least $30 million. Jason Simbal, the vice president of race and sports for CG Technology, told ESPN that he expects this fight “will do four or five times more than the (Mayweather-Maidana) fight,” which had a “mid-six-figure” handle last year.
• Fight contract: Mayweather signed a six-fight contract with Showtime. The May 2 bout will be the fifth on that deal. Per Forbes, he raked in $170 million with the last four fights, with his biggest payday (including PPV receipts) at $75 million from the Alvarez fight.
• Career numbers: Mayweather is 47-0 with 26 KOs, while Pacquiao has a career record of 57-5-2 with 38 KOs.
Forbes reported that Mayweather has earned $860 million in PPV revenue from 14.2 million buys. Pacquiao has earned $755 million on 13.6 million buys. All told, Mayweather has racked up $420 million in career earnings, while Pacquiao has taken in $335 million, including endorsements.
Mayweather vs. Pacquiao will be a spectacular hit, the biggest for boxing in many years. It does not matter if they announced it at 5 p.m. ET on social media or at 3 a.m. in a cave under the sea. It does not matter that they are older. They could hold this fight in a country barn, Madison Square Garden, etc. When the pay per view price is announced—reports are it could be close to $100—there will be a round of moaning and groaning followed by a record-breaking ante up. You can book it.
The consensus at the moment is that the advantage is Mayweather’s, that Pacquiao has too many miles and exposed vulnerabilities, and Mayweather’s defensive evasiveness will make him very difficult to beat. But Pacquiao has long wanted this fight and he’s still Manny Pacquiao and…you don’t really know, do you? You really don’t know. They don’t know. That’s the whole point, why this matters, why it mattered all along, May 2, Vegas, Mayweather and Pacquiao, goodness gracious, this crazy thing is actually going to happen.
