The Best Teams Don’t Always Make The Best Bets

By | November 22, 2016 at 4:20 am | No comments | Columns, Sports Scene

By Flint Wheeler

That statement rings true in the early workings of the 2016-17 NBA season, where the best teams in the NBA are among the worst wagers basketball bettors could make. And, conversely, the worst teams in the NBA are among the top moneymakers against the spread.

Isolating the five teams with the best win/loss records from the 2015-16 season, we have the Golden State Warriors, San Antonio Spurs, Cleveland Cavaliers, Toronto Raptors and Oklahoma City Thunder. Those five teams have started the new season with a collective 17-20-1 ATS mark, with last year’s NBA Finals contenders – Golden State at 3-5 ATS and the Cleveland Cavaliers at 2-5 ATS – as the biggest money pits to start the schedule.Looking at the bottom of the 2015-16 standings, we have the Philadelphia 76ers, Los Angeles Lakers, Brooklyn Nets, Phoenix Suns, and Minnesota Timberwolves. Considered to be the cellar dwellers of the NBA, these clubs combine for a 24-15-0 ATS (Against The Spread) mark – covering the spread 61.5 percent of the time. The Lakers and Nets are among the top bets in the NBA for the young season at 6-2 ATS while the Suns have started 6-3 ATS as of Thursday November 17th.

Of course, this has to do with public perception and sportsbooks tacking on extra points to the spread when these teams are involved – making top teams like the Warriors and Cavs bigger favorites, with the public pounding those elite clubs, while giving bad squads like the Lakers and Nets extra helpings of points, with NBA bettors fading those poor teams. That my friends is opportunity.

And in NFL News…

We’re just weeks away from the NFL playoffs, which can only mean one thing: You’re running out of time to place bets on Super Bowl LI.

In a chaotic 2016 season, Las Vegas seems to think that the title chase is wide open — mostly. Eleven teams are listed at 25/1 odds or better to win the Super Bowl, yet none of those squads can hold a candle to the overwhelming favorites.

Here are 3 teams the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook thinks stand a chance to win the Super Bowl — excluding the heavy favorite the New England Patriots — and a quick breakdown on whether a bet makes any sense for each team.

Seattle Seahawks: 7/1

Worth a bet? Without a doubt. We saw in Week 10 that the Seahawks can more than hang with the Patriots, and the defense should be enough to mask Seattle’s struggles on the offensive line. The only reason not to put a bet on the Seahawks is if you have more faith in another NFC team, such as …

Dallas Cowboys: 7/1

Worth a bet? Only if you believe in destiny, since the Cowboys seem hand-picked by the football gods to have a storybook season.

Seriously, though, this is a solid price for the Cowboys. If you can stomach picking America’s Team, I wouldn’t discourage you from making this bet.

On top of all that …

Oakland Raiders: 16/1

Worth a bet? If you love roller-coasters the Raiders are well, the Raiders and that says enough. It would be a surprise however that’s what the NFL serves up best. Only the Raiders could win a title the same year they’re making noise about moving to another city.

Share

Comments are closed.